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Oscar 2008: Previsões


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Knightley eu já acho bem difícil, acredito que a última vaga esteja entre a Adams, Blanchett e Foster. Acho que até mesmo a Linney, mas numa total zebra, quase sem precedentes.

 

O SAG também fechou quem vai vencer em ator, na minha opinião... a única ameaça era o Depp, e mesmo se Sweeney Todd tivesse mandado screeners, acho que no panorama geral o Depp se apagou demais... Conseguir a indicação já será difícil. Pra mim as categorias abertas são diretor, atriz, ator/atriz coadj e roteiros. Mas diretor e atriz coadjuvante já estão quase selados também, na minha opinião.

 

 

E para os antenados em datas, qual é o próximo grande evento/anúncio no calendário?

 

  
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E Ronny' date=' gostei do seu insight sobre There Will be Blood, mas vc não acha que Juno sofre do mesmo problema no SAG? Só 2 atores comentados no filme.

[/quote']

 

Não é questão do elenco ser comentado, Vicking, mas sim de previsto e desevolvido pelo roteiro.

Juno teve 5 de seus atores premiados/indicados pela crítica: Page, Garner, Cera, Simmons e Janney. Isso só reflete que o roteiro de Juno dá conta de vários personagens, ao contrário de BLOOD, que de fato centraliza em apenas dois.

 

Pra mim a esnobada do SAG á JUNO foi surpreendente.

 

 

E por falar em BLOOD:

 

9780143112266H.jpg

 

E nada de vir para o Brasil.
Ronny2007-12-21 04:32:49
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Knightley eu já acho bem difícil' date=' acredito que a última vaga esteja entre a Adams, Blanchett e Foster. Acho que até mesmo a Linney, mas numa total zebra, quase sem precedentes.  [/quote']

 

Apesar de eu não ter visto The Savages, tal zebra far-me-ia abrir um sorriso de orelha a orelha. 01

 

---------------------------------------------------------------

 

Nada que tenha muito peso na discussão, mas Roger Ebert postou a lista dos melhores do ano na opinião dele:

 

 

 

 

 

juno.jpg

 

Ellen Page as "Juno": "I mean' date=' I'm already pregnant, so what other kind of shenanigans could I get into?"

 

 

 

The year's ten best films

and other shenanigans

 

 

 

roger_home.jpg/ / /

December 20, 2007

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

by Roger Ebert

 

 

It was a time of wonders, an autumn of miracles, one of the best years

in recent movie history. One great film after another opened, and movie

lovers found there were two or three, sometimes more, must-see films

opening on a weekend. I gave up rationing my four-star ratings and went

with the flow. The best films of 2007:

 

 

 

 

1. “Juno”:

How can I choose this warm-hearted comedy about a pregnant teenager,

when the year was rich with serious drama? First, because of all the

year’s films I responded to it most strongly. I tried out other titles

in the No. 1 position, but my heart told me I had to be honest: This

was my true love, and I could not be unfaithful. It is so hard to make

a great comedy at all, and harder still to make one that is

intelligent, quick, charming, moving and yes, very, very funny. Seeing

“Juno” with an audience was to be reminded of unforgettable communal

moviegoing experiences, when strangers are united in delight. It was

light on its feet, involving the audience in love and care for its

characters. The first-time screenplay by Diablo Cody is Oscar-worthy.

So is Ellen Page’s performance in the title role, which is like

tightrope-walking: There were so many ways for her to go wrong, and she

never did.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2. “No Country for Old Men”:

A perfect movie, I wrote after the premiere at Toronto. And so it is.

The Coen brothers supply not a wrong scene or even a wrong moment. A

story bleak and merciless, played out by characters who are capable of

almost anything except withstanding the relentless evil of its serial

killer. Based on the Cormac McCarthy novel, it builds on his eye and

ear to create a world in which ordinary assumptions go astray, and

logic is useless. With spare, wounded performances by Josh Brolin, Tommy Lee Jones, Woody Harrelson and many others, and Javier Bardem as not a man so much as a force of destruction.

 

 

 

 

 

 

3. “Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead”: It was a year for the great character actor Philip Seymour Hoffman, so different and so good in this film, “The Savages” and “Charlie Wilson’s War.” In “Devil,” he and Ethan Hawke

play brothers, unlike except in their urgent need for cash, who plan a

“victimless” hold-up of their family’s jewelry store. Everything goes

wrong, they feel anguish and panic in the pits of their stomachs, and

in the eyes of their father (Albert Finney),

the hurt is almost unbearable. They lie and deceive first others and

then themselves, and it all turns to ashes. Another masterpiece by Sidney Lumet, who is 83 and at the top of his form.

 

 

 

 

 

4. “Atonement”:

The momentary misunderstanding of a child destroys all possibility of

happiness in three lives. Saoirse Ronan plays a young adolescent in a

wealthy English family, who sees her older sister (Keira Knightley) and the family groundskeeper (James McAvoy)

in a confrontation she misunderstands, which later leads her to telling

an unforgivable lie. Against the canvas of World War II, the love of

the two older characters is prevented from realizing itself, in a

stunning period picture that centers on a tracking shot at Dunkirk that

is one of he most elaborate ever staged. Directed by Joe Wright, based

on an Ian McEwan novel that saves a final ironic insight until the end.

 

5. “The Kite Runner”:

The beloved best-seller by Khaled Hosseini about two boys in peaceful

pre-war Kabul, before the Russians, the Taliban, the Americans and the

anarchy destroyed Afghanistan. The boys and their parents are seen in

tender detail, then revisited years later after devastation has

overthrown their lives. Homayoun Ershadi, who plays the father, has

such expressive eyes he makes many of the film’s points without

speaking. Director Marc Forster,

filming in local languages in Afghanistan and the United States,

interlaces the fabric of these lives with a heartbreaking story that

leads to a powerfully uplifting ending.

 

 

 

 

 

6. “Away From Her”: The Canadian actress Sarah Polley makes her directing debut with a heartbreaking story of the destruction of Alzheimer’s. Julie Christie, in one of the year’s best performances, plays a woman whose memories are inexorably slipping away. Gordon Pinsent

plays her loving husband, who cannot comprehend how he could so quickly

come to mean so little to her. Based on a story by Alice Munro, the

film sees through his eyes the disappearance of love, history, life

itself, as he lives on in loneliness.

 

7. “Across the Universe”: Possibly the year’s most divisive film; you loved it or hated it. Julie Taymor

brings all of her gifts of visual invention to a story centering on a

group of friends living in Greenwich Village and expressing their lives

through the Beatles songbook. They encounter people not unlike those in

famous Beatles songs or albums, and the music sheds light on their

experiences — sometimes unexpectedly, as when “I Want to Hold Your

Hand” tenderly expresses the deepest feelings of a lovelorn lesbian

cheerleader. The movie captures the best of what the Beatles

represented. I want to see it two or three more times, experiencing it

like a favorite CD.

 

 

 

 

 

8. “La Vie en Rose”:

A virtuoso performance by Marion Cotillard as the beloved “Little

Sparrow,” the legendary singer closest to the hearts of the French.

Raised in a brothel and then the “property” of a gangster, she was only

4’8” tall, but had a voice that filled the city. Cotillard portrays her

rising from the gutters to international stardom, and then dying of an

overdose at 47. The title refers to her most famous song, about life

through rose-colored glasses. The film ends with “Non, je ne regrette

rien” (“No, I regret nothing”). The period is vividly re-created by

director Olivier Dahan. One of the greatest of musical biopics.

 

9. “The Great Debaters”:

Denzel Washington’s spellbinding film based on the true story set in

1935 about a debate team from Wiley College, an obscure black

institution in Texas that defeated Harvard for the national

championship. Washington plays their coach, who demands the highest

standards, but the film is not another story about an underdog

championship, but a searing reminder of the racist society the team

lived in. On a night journey, Washington and his students happen upon a

lynching; the horror and danger are overwhelming. With Nate Parker

touching as the team researcher who becomes a last-minute substitute,

Denzel Whitaker as debater and future CORE founder James Farmer Jr., Jurnee Smollett as a debater who calls on her deepest feelings, and Forest Whitaker as a local preacher who becomes galvanized. It’s a deep emotional experience.

 

 

 

 

 

10. “Into the Wild”:

Sean Penn’s bleak but sympathetic drama is based on the real story of

Christopher McCandless, an idealistic loner who trekked into the

Alaskan wilderness and died there. The movie shows him meeting mentors

along the way, who are concerned about him, especially a rugged

individualist (Hal Holbrook) and a spirited hippie (Catherine Keener). Emile Hirsch

plays the role to within an inch of his life, somehow expressing

without seeming to try how his tunnel vision leads him through his

dreams to his disaster. Could have been dreary, but Penn’s screenplay

and direction are compelling.

[/quote']

Gusmão_Raimundo2007-12-21 11:33:23

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Por favor, ainda apostam em Jodie Foster e Laura Linney? As duas já não têm mais chances de indicação. A única que pode ameaçar a vaga de Cate Blanchett é Amy Adams, mas ainda assim é uma tarefa quase ingrata, visto que a Academia não vê uma fantasia de Disney com bons olhos... ponto para Blanchett, cada vez mais perto de entrar na história.

 

Eu não tenho tanta certeza quanto a Ryan Gosling... Johnny Depp ainda tem boas chances, apesar do SAG. Locks mesmo, só Daniel Day-Lewis, George Clooney e Viggo Mortensen. Emile Hirsch está quase lá e se Into the Wild realmente for indicado, está dentro. Se for para apostar o vencedor, será Daniel Day-Lewis, disparado.

 

Tommy Lee Jones pode até ser indicado como coadjuvante, já que a categoria não está tão forte assim neste ano. Mas Philip Seymour Hoffman ainda é forte candidato. Entre os coadjuvantes, os locks são Javier Bardem, Casey Affleck e Tom Wilkinson. Hal Holbrook está na mesma situação de seu colega Hirsch.

 

Entre as coadjuvantes, também temos três locks: Cate Blanchett, Amy Ryan e Tilda Swinton, que dividiram os louros nas associações de crítica. Into the Wild guardou uma reserva aqui, assim como Hirsch e Holbrook: Catherine Keener. A quinta vaga certamente será para Atonement: Saoirse Ronan ou Vanessa Redgrave.

 

 
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Atualizando...

 

CONTAGEM DE PRÊMIOS DE CRÍTICA (A partir do NBR)

 

FILME

No Country for Old Men - 10

There Will Be Blood - 3

Juno - 1

The Diving Bell and the Butterfly - 1

The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford - 1

 

DIREÇÃO

Ethan e Joel Coen - 9  

Paul Thomas Anderson - 3

Tim Burton - 1

Julian Schnabel - 1

 

ATOR

Daniel Day-Lewis - 8

George Clooney - 3

Viggo Mortensen - 2

Ryan Gosling - 1

Frank Langella - 1

 

ATRIZ

Julie Christie - 8

Ellen Page - 5

Marion Cotillard - 3

 

ATOR COADJUVANTE

Javier Bardem - 10

Casey Affleck - 3

Tom Wilkinson - 1

Vlad Ivanov - 1

 

ATRIZ COADJUVANTE

Amy Ryan - 8

Cate Blanchett - 4

Tilda Swinton - 1

Allison Janney - 1

 

=============================

 

Wow. Page e Blanchett encostando em Christie e Ryan, respectivamente.

 

Apertem os cintos, ou melhor, o teclado. Page está mostrando que veio para ganhar mesmo!
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Talvez as chances de Amy Adams estejam reduzidas porque boa parte da atenção para uma "novata" em uma comédia tenha ido para Ellen Page, que por sinal tem um apoio maior da crítica, julgando pelas premiações que ela ganhou.

 

E engraçado também como nem todo sucesso de crítica tem sido considerado nas premiações. Talvez os críticos tenham sido benevolentes demais esse ano?

 

 

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Já eu duvido completamente de Into the Wild e continuo apostando pesadamente em In the Valley of Elah (e esse argumento de que ele já está fora pois obteve críticas menores do que Crash é um dos mais pífios que já li).

 

E continuo dizendo que é exagero indicação a Adams, já que seu personagem não é dos melhores e portanto, ela fica limitada.

 

Laura Linney é possivelmente uma das atrizes contemporâneas mais injustiçadas do Oscar. Ponho mais fé no Hoffman do que nela por The Savages (apesar de duvidar dele tbm). Ainda por cima Linney fez um filme que obteve uma péssima recepção (nada como Norbit, mas foi muito fraco mesmo), o que certamente abalará suas (poucas) chances.

 

Agora uma que foi esquecida para categoria de atriz principal foi a Halle Berry por Things We Lost in the Fire. Quando uma atriz como Berry estoura em um filme, sai de baixo. Idem para o Del Toro.
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Mas eu não acho que a discordância entre o Globo e o Oscar seja tão premeditada. (Crash foi uma anormalidade, Babel venceu num ano sem favoritos, talvez O Aviador Vs. Menina de Ouro seja o caso mais relevante para esse ano.)

 

O que eu quero dizer quando digo que acredito que Atonement precisa levar o Globo de Ouro é que nenhum filme se opõe como uma alternativa a No Country for Old Men. Se nenhum filme crescer daqui até as premiações (seja por bilheteria, seja pelas premiações, seja pelo buzz*, seja pelo marketing), NCFOM permanece favorito e leva o prêmio principal (a propósito, a reação negativa ao final não prejudicou sua campanha até agora, pelo visto.)

 

*Quanto ao buzz, o problema é que agora os filmes não podem mais ficar escondidos, muito pelo contrário, a falta de exibição não ajudou aos esnobados pelo SAG.

 

 

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Vi hoje O Sobrevivente do Herzog e de fato Christian Bale está brilhante. Merece todas as honrarias dessa categoria "body of work", já que no final ele lembra bastante a magreza esquelética vista em O Operário.

 

De resto, é um filme interessante, mas que não é aquilo tudo dito. Está longe de ser o melhor filme do diretor, mas tbm não é seu pior.
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Florida Film Critics Circle Awards

Best Picture: No Country for Old Men by Joel and Ethan Coen

Best Foreign-Language Film: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly by Julian Schnabel

Best Documentary: No End in Sight by Charles Ferguson

Best Directors: Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men

Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood

Best Actress: Ellen Page, Juno

Best Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men

Best Supporting Actress: Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone

Best Screenplay: Diablo Cody, Juno

Best Animated Film: Ratatouille by Brad Bird

Best Cinematography: Roger Deakins, No Country for Old Men and The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford

Pauline Kael Breakout Award: Ellen Page, Juno

Best Original Songs: Once

 

......

 

Page, pra mim, já é tão favorita quanto Julie Christie e Marion Cotillard.
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Acabou o Oscar. Já está tudo definido, digo os vencedores.

 

FILME: NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN

DIREÇÃO: COENS, de NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN

ATOR: DANIEL DAY-LEWIS, por THERE WILL BE BLOOD

ATRIZ: JULIE CHRISTIE ou ELLEN PAGE

ATOR COAD: JAVIER BARDEM, por NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN

ATRIZ COAD: AMY RYAN por GONE BABY GONE

ROTEIRO ORIGINAL: JUNO

ROTEIRO ADAPTADO: NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN

FOTOGRAFIA: NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN ou THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES
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Já que Sweeney Todd, Atonement e Charlie Wilson's War não foram vistos por votantes o suficiente no SAG e lembrando que a categoria Best Ensemble este ano não foi "Melhor Filme disfarçado" e sim apenas "Best Ensemble", minha lista do Oscar não muda drasticamente. Depois desta lista também me rendi a Into the Wild e o coloquei no lugar de Juno, mas não o considero lock de jeito nenhum. Ou seja: NCFOM, TWBB, Sweeney Todd, Atonement e Into the Wild. Entre os diretores, a lista fica a mesma. Apenas troco o Sean Penn por Julian Schnabell.

 

Entre os atores não acredito na indicação do Emile Hirsh, que só apareceu no SAG por causa da ausência de Depp. Já Ryan Gosling entra na minha lista no lugar de James McAvoy e Viggo Mortensen finalmente garante sua vaga. Então aposto em Day-Lewis, Clooney, Mortensen, Depp e Gosling.

 

Fico muito feliz que neste ano não temos uma preferida na categoria de Atriz. Na verdade temos uma briga entre Christie, Page e Cotillard. Acredito que Jolie também esteja garantida e a última vaga será disputa por Blanchett e Adams, com Knightley correndo por fora.

 

Bardem, Affleck, Wilkinson e Hoffman são certos. Halbrook estava quase lá, mas aí chega Tommy Lee Jones para estragar sua festa. No Travolta eu não confio, não.

 

Ryan, Blanchett e Swinton certas. O mesmo que acontedeu com Depp aconteceu com as codjuvantes de Atonement, então continuo apostando tranquilamente em Ronan e Redgrave.
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Atualização de Poland:

 

eastern_promises2.jpg

 

 

20

Weeks To Oscar

 

The

Last Oscar Column

 

(Until January 3)

 

by David Poland

Well, we're

down to where we were a month ago!

Back on November

15, I wrote: "It's also an unusual year because so many of

these films are so good.  Everyone has personal favorites and

films they just don't like, but if you run down the list of the

dozen or so films still in play, it seems like you are going to

find almost everyone giving a "thumbs up" (quarter to

Roger) to at least two-thirds of the titles.  That is remarkable,

really."

Has that changed?

Oscar

Charts

 

Best

Picture | Best

Director

 

Best Actor

| Supporting Actor

 

Best

Actress | Supporting Actress

 

Best

Screenplay

[/quote']

 

 

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Deus te ouça, Histori. Acho que todos aqui sabem da minha torcida por Before the Devil. Mantenho o filme nos top 10, mas ele tem que dá as caras ja ja nas premiações dos sindicatos (04).

Na primeira página do outro tópico manifestei minha torcida e reproduzo aqui:

 

 

"Before the Devil Knows You're Dead"

devil1.jpg

 

devil2.jpg

 

devil3.jpg

 

devil4.jpg

 

 

"“Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead” is one of the best films of the year if only because it does so much with so little.

This is Hoffman’s best performance since “Owning Mahowny,” and yes, that includes his overrated impressions in “Capote.”

Hawke is spot-on in a role that finally makes good use of that awkward realism he struggles to convey in perhaps one too many performances.

Marisa Tomei – God bless her – offers a performance ranging from sexy, vulnerable and optimistic to weary, defeated and cynical. Albert Finney is good if somewhat elusive, while Rosemary Harris has little to do but emboss a character we’re actually sad to see go, despite what little we know of her."

--- Kris Tapley

 

"Sidney Lumet's Before The Devil Knows You're Dead is so far one of the year's absolute best picture."

--- Jeffery Wells

 

"Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead is sharp-edged and constructed with a taut urgency. The performanes are superb."

--- Roger Ebert

 

"An intricate tragedy that plumbs messy emotional depths with cinematic precision, "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead" explores urban malaise via ingredients so timeless, an ancient Greek stumbling into the theater would recognize the building blocks of mortal folly."

--- Variety

 

"Pungently atmospheric, brilliantly textured and featuring superb performances from every performer in parts big and small, "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead" might not quite rank with such classics as "Dog Day Afternoon" and countless other films by Lumet, but it does make thrillingly clear that he's still at the top of his game."

--- Hollywood Reporter
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