Oscar 2008: Previsões

[FeCamargo]

Eu disse, esse será provavelmente o Oscar mais estúpido das últimas décadas... O humor involuntário alcançará níveis extratosféricos!!!

[Investigador L]

 

Zuzu Angel é novela cinematizada e O Ano em que Meus Pais Sairam de Férias é cinema. Nem levo a sério os filmes da Globo Filmes (tirando um ou outro). A linguagem deles é uma afronta ao cinema nacional e ao que significa linguagem cinematográfica' date=' mas enfim, gostos existem.[/quote']

 

 Eu não acho que seja tanto. Zuzu Angel apesar de ser quase novelinha realmente (afinal, como disse, é da Globo Filmes), tem uns momentos bem legais, como a o começo, o 'acidente' de carro e as cenas de tortura. E daí que as personagens do filme são romantizadas?, isso acontece com muita frequencia no cinema também. Por outro lado, O Ano tem uma boa fotografia e se resume a isso. O resto é tudo ruim, na minha opinião, mas enfim, gosto é gosto.

 

[Administrator]

O pessoal que diz que Zuzu Angel é novela certamente não viu Olga. E O Ano é da Globo Filmes, FeCamargo.

[throdo]

Eu disse' date=' esse será provavelmente o Oscar mais estúpido das últimas décadas... O humor involuntário alcançará níveis extratosféricos!!![/quote']

 

Qual a razão de uma afirmação dessas?

[FeCamargo]

O pessoal que diz que Zuzu Angel é novela certamente não viu Olga. E O Ano é da Globo Filmes' date=' FeCamargo.[/quote']

 

Não há diferença, tanto em linguagem quanto em estrutura entre as duas produções.

FeCamargo2007-12-26 18:54:43

[FeCamargo]

Eu disse' date=' esse será provavelmente o Oscar mais estúpido das últimas décadas... O humor involuntário alcançará níveis extratosféricos!!![/quote']

 

Qual a razão de uma afirmação dessas?

 

pense...

 

[Administrator]

O pessoal que diz que Zuzu Angel é novela certamente não viu Olga. E O Ano é da Globo Filmes' date=' FeCamargo.[/quote']

 

Não há diferença, tanto em linguagem quanto em estrutura entre as duas produções.

 

Olga é uma bomba e uma vergonha ao cinema brasileiro, Zuzu não, é apenas um entre tantos que utilizam o formato de novela. Uma diferença.

[Dark Knight]

Não tenho acompanhado o fórum ultimamente, mas devo concordar que pelo famoso buzz, pelo resultado das últimas premiações, podemos prever um resultado decepcionante nas categorias de atriz principal e atriz coadjuvante. Não que eu tenha preconceito com novatas, mas pelo que descreveram a atuação da Cate Blanchett em I'm Not There e de Marion Cottilard em Edith Piaf, a premiação seria mais do que justa. Mas é esperar pra ver, pois são apenas palpites com base no que eu tenho lido, e que, convenhamos, nem sempre são fontes confiáveis.

 

O que mais me chamou a atenção foram as indicações ao Globo de Ouro na categoria Drama, não entendi a necessidade de sete candidatos em uma categoria, mas se colocassem o filme do Lumet no lugar de The Great Debaters, teria ficado interessante, devo admitir. No mais fico feliz pelas indicações de Daniel Day-Lewis, Tilda Swinton, Helena Bonham-Carter, Javier Bardem, Viggo Mortensen, Philip Seymour Hoffman e Tom Wilkinson. Nem preciso comentar sobre Blanchett, as fotos dizem tudo, mulher de talento indubitável, foi uma Katharine Hepburn incrível, não tenho dúvidas de que estará esplêndida como Dylan. Senti falta de Laura Linney e Marisa Tomei, mas no geral pareceram justas as indicações.

 

 

[rubysun]

Eu disse' date=' esse será provavelmente o Oscar mais estúpido das últimas décadas... O humor involuntário alcançará níveis extratosféricos!!![/quote']

 

Qual a razão de uma afirmação dessas?

 

se NCFOM ganhar em filme e direção será o melhor oscar desde sei lá, 92 ou os anos 70.

[Sync]

Ninguém pergfuntou, mas eu vou escrever:

 

Para mim, uma lista de indicados a melhor filme que mais me agradaria seria:

 

• American Gangster

• Charlie Wilson's War
• There will be blood
• Sweeney Todd
• Juno

 

 

[rubysun]

não vou nem perguntar se vc viu algum...

pra mim fica assim:

Onde os Fracos não têm Vez

Redacted

Grindhouse

Zodíaco

Sweeney Todd/There Will be Blood/American Gangster/Eastern Promises

[Historiense]

Fe Camargo ta ressentido porque There Will be Blood vai perder pra o muito bom (badalado está) Onde os Fracos não têm vez.

[Bob Harris]

Meu sonho seria ver Paranoid Park indicado.

[rubysun]

Fe Camargo ta ressentido porque There Will be Blood vai perder pra o muito bom (badalado está) Onde os Fracos não têm vez.

 

muito bom nada. obra-prima.

 

arrisco dizer que nunca que o pta vai fazer algo nesse nível. isso pq eu gosto muito dele.

[Ronny]

O COMEÇO DA RETA FINAL

Ana Maria Bahiana

 

 

Agora falando sério: quem realmente tem chances nas principais categorias da temporada de prêmios? Creio que já podemos fazer um listão sem grandes hesitações (e, por enquanto, sem grandes paixões _ com algumas exceções, meus grandes amores cinematográficos deste ano não estão nesta lista….)

 

OS FAVORITOS _ Todo ano a disputa se polariza, no fim das contas, entre dois títulos. Suspeito fortemente que, em 2008, veremos de um lado o nouveau western de Onde os Fracos Não Tem Vez e o apelo clássico (de época, perfume literário, sotaques britânicos) de Desejo e Reparação. A ala jovem e os sobreviventes da geração-70 devem fechar com os Coens. A turma que adorou O Paciente Inglês vai pelo outro caminho.

 

OS ATOS DE BRAVURA _ Os atores, claramente, entenderam Na Natureza Selvagem como um show de bola da categoria. Sua chuva de indicações nos SAGs demonstra que um ator atrás da câmera confiando um filme quase mudo a um jovem talento (Emile Hirsch) atinge em cheio o coração do departamento mais numeroso da Academia. Idem, idem There Will be Blood _ as pessoas podem se sentir desconfortáveis com as ousadias de PTA, mas Daniel Day Lewis é uma unanimidade. Idem idem o Nikolai de Viggo Mortensen em Senhores do Crime.

 

AS REDES DE SEGURANÇA _ O Gângster é o filme mais mainstream deste lote e também o campeão de bilheteria: algo irresistível para o eleitor apressado. Conduta de Risco tem George Clooney e um tema de base ética e moral. É quase um filme que Alan Pakula ou Sidney Lumet fariam em, digamos, 1973.

OS RISCOS_ Se Sweeney Todd tivesse estreado antes e/ou lançado sua campanha de modo mais agressivo ele talvez não estivesse nesta categoria. Além disso é um musical estrelado por um não-cantor (mas que já deu suas voltinhas no gênero para John Waters, alguém se lembra de Cry Baby?), repleto de tripas e sangue… O Escafandro e a Borboleta é ainda mais arriscado _ um filme de arte, grandemente abstrato, e em francês! I’m Not There é o quindim dos independentes, e deve levar os Spirit Awards com tranquilidade.

O PEQUENO PORÉM GOSTOSO _ Todo ano há uma vaga para um pequeno filme charmoso _ e Juno agarrou-se a ela com tudo, em 2007. É o Pequena Miss Sunshine desta temporada.

[Ronny]

Foi dada a largada para entrega do Oscar

(AFP) — A contagem regressiva para a 80ª entrega do Oscar, o prêmio mais cobiçado da indústria americana do cinema, começou nesta quarta-feira com o envio dos envelopes para que os 5.829 votantes da Academia das Ciências e das Artes Cinematográfica escolham seus favoritos.

Os membros da Academia deverão entregar seus envelopes com os indicados antes das 17h (horário local) de 12 de janeiro para que sejam contabilizados pela empresa PricewaterhouseCoopers.

Os nomes dos indicados ao Oscar serão conhecidos em 22 de janeiro, em um anúncio feito em Beverly Hills. As estatuetas douradas serão entregues na cerimônia que acontece dia 24 de fevereiro de 2008, no Teatro Kodak de Hollywood.

Uma segunda rodada de cédulas para determinar os ganhadores será enviada depois do anúncio das indicações.

[Administrator]

Este artigo produzido especialmente para o Awards Daily também merece leitura, tal qual os de cima.

 

Nele, o autor tenta explicar por que tudo parece estar tão em aberto (e, conseqüentemente, excitante) este ano: poucos filmes preenchem gêneros típicos de vagas, como "o épico", "o drama sobre a Segunda Guerra", etc. Até mesmo as cinebiografias em disputa não são tão tradicionais como as dos anos anteriores. Faz sentido.

 

Playing the Slots

 

 

by Daniel Smith-Rowsey

 

Special to AwardsDaily

 

One of the reasons

that this year's Best Picture race is perhaps the most exciting in

memory is that many of the familiar "slots" are out of play. There's

the "epic" slot' date=' filled in years past by films like Braveheart and Titanic and Gladiator, casts of thousands seen in sumptuous wide-angle sweeps of the camera - no film like that this year. World War II slot, a la Saving Private Ryan, The Pianist, or Letters From Iwo Jima? Not this year.

 

Since Erin Brockovich became the first living person to affix her name to a Best Picture nominee, every succeeding year has had a "loving bio" slot: A Beautiful Mind, The Pianist, Seabiscuit (yes, a horse), Ray, Capote, The Queen. There's not really a film like that this year, though Into the Wild comes close, improving its chances. (American Gangster isn't

really such a film, as discussed below.) There's the "great ensemble"

slot, where any acting nominee would be a supporting one, filled

recently by Gosford Park, Crash, and Babel - no film like that except I'm Not There, out of the running.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Lastly, before beginning, and as a reminder: Clint Eastwood won the

last four Best Picture Oscars. No he didn't, you say? Well, he may as

well have. AMPAS could have rewarded the hobbits earlier, but instead

left a situation where nothing could have possibly beaten the third Lord of the Rings film - by consensus, Eastwood's Mystic River (like L.A. Confidential to Titanic) would have otherwise been the winner. Similarly, no film director can really do LOTR up to Academy standards (Narnia, Harry Potter, Golden Compass),

not even Peter Jackson himself (King Kong), but Clint Eastwood is a lot

easier to imitate, and sure enough, that's exactly what Martin Scorsese

decided to do when his nomination-count-leading The Aviator lost Best

Picture to Eastwood's Million Dollar Baby. While Eastwood's Baby scribe

(Paul Haggis) was using his Baby clout to get his super-cast for Crash,

it was like Scorsese said "You want Eastwood? I'll give you Eastwood"

and proceeded to remake a Hong Kong genre film into Mystic River 2, The

Departed: yet more of Boston boys becoming men and betraying each other

on the corrupt South Side streets. (Just to keep Marty guessing that

The Departed might not be enough, AMPAS nominated another Clint film

alongside it, this one all in Japanese.) More of Eastwood's actors have

won Oscars in this decade than any other director's actors - four,

including first-timers for those lovely two gentlemen from The

Shawshank Redemption. Yes: a man who signed his first Hollywood

contract when Bogart and Dean were alive is running the town. But what

does this all mean to movies? It means that if Eastwood would do it,

it's worth doing, ergo, simple, spare, tight-budgeted stories with

brutal violence (and third-act reversals, a la Million Dollar Baby)

mean as much to the prestige-conscious part of Hollywood as myspace,

facebook, and youtube mean to teenagers. It's Clint's world, we just

live in it. So, when it comes to learning whose films came close to a

Clint Eastwood "slot" this year, I guess you better ask yourself one

question: do you feel like it? Well, do ya, punk?

 

American Gangster: hit slot, Departed slot?

Plus: Gladiator (2000), Traffic (2000), A Beautiful Mind (2001), Seabiscuit (2003), Munich (2005), The Departed (2006)

Minus:

Cast Away (2000), Black Hawk Down (2001), Catch Me If You Can (2002),

Passion of the Christ (2004), Walk the Line (2005), Kingdom of Heaven

(2005), A Good Year (2006), The Pursuit of Happyness (2006)

 

Many people seem to think that American Gangster will claim the "slot" of last year's The Departed.  But that wasn't a slot: that was Marty.  If The Departed had been directed, shot-for-shot the same, by Brett Ratner, would it have been anywhere near Oscar night?  If The Aviator had somehow won Best Picture two years before, would The Departed

have won?  AMPAS stored up years of Scorsese guilt before last year's

exorcism, and no one else quite compares to that, not even the

brilliant author of Alien and Blade Runner, Ridley

Scott.  (Scott's not necessarily an actor's director, where Scorsese is

an actor's career-maker.)  It doesn't help that in the last two Oscar

seasons, Scott squandered his talent and good name on Kingdom of Heaven and A Good Year.  (The Coens have also squandered, but they looked like they knew they were slumming; Scott didn't.)

 

As

for the "hit" slot: this ain't the 1990s.  Sure, there used to be a

saved place for an orderly drama that made more than $100 million: how

else to explain the Best Picture nom of The Sixth Sense, a film

that otherwise appeared on no precursor lists?  They ended that rule

the very next year, with a drama that, at voting time, had made more

than $200m: Cast Away.  Since then, they've had plenty of chances to bring the rule back: Passion of the Christ, Walk the Line, The Pursuit of Happyness - but no.  Other than the Lord of the Rings films and two loving bios (A Beautiful Mind and Seabiscuit), The Departed

was actually the first $100m-earning film (at voting time) to get a

Best Picture nom in this decade.  Year of indies?  Since the studios

started aping Miramax and setting up boutique divisions ("Classics" and

such), every year is the year of indies.  Let's not get it twisted:

bombs are still bombs, and profitability still paves the road to Oscar (Little Miss Sunshine), but the point is there's no more automatic position for the megahit dramas.

 

American Gangster could still wind up in the Final Five.  If they see it as Black Hawk Down (Scott does recent violent history) or Catch Me If You Can (60s-70s cat-mouse antics), then there's a problem.  If they see it more like Traffic or Munich - glossy semi-historical violence with a point - then American Gangster can get a Best Pic nod.  Horrible stat: since A Soldier's Story, Denzel Washington has never been in a Best Picture nominee, despite the very reasonable chances of Glory, Malcolm X, Philadelphia, The Hurricane, and others.  

 

Atonement: epic slot?

Plus: The English Patient (1996), Gosford Park (2001), The Hours (2002), Seabiscuit (2003), The Aviator (2004),

Minus: The End of the Affair (1999), Cold Mountain (2003), Pride and Prejudice (2005)

 

The "epic" slot is vacant this year, but Atonement comes closest in the sense of a Reds or The English Patient: steam-filled train stations, interwar silk shirts, hand-wringing about apocalyptic devastation.  The problem is that Atonement may not quite register the weight of events in the way of other Doctor Zhivago imitators.  The Cold Mountain chants have already begun on the internet, and indeed Atonement seems

to have plenty in common with the film that made jaws drop all over

Hollywood when it failed to earn a Best Picture nomination four years

ago: based on a much-celebrated recent period novel, homefront-warfront

proportion about the same, glossy young actors getting all serious

about something.  But Atonement is two things that Cold Mountain wasn't: 20th-century and British.  Those have to help, don't they?

 

In 1992-1993, when Howard's End and The Remains of the Day

racked up consecutive Best Picture noms, it was easy to believe that

Merchant-Ivory, or at least something prestigious and British (Kenneth

Branagh then seemed a force), would own a slot any year that they cared

to make a solid effort.  But it didn't turn out that way.  Even when

SAG has nominated British ensembles, like Little Voice and Waking Ned Devine and Billy Elliot, Oscar has proved far more sanguine to let the films into the Final Five.  However, Atonement is

far more historical than those, and perhaps the most "adult" of this

year's epic-ish films.  If they decide it's this year's classy adult

fiction slot - Gosford Park, The Hours - then it's in, but they may also decide it's too thin or green, like The End of the Affair or this director's last outing, Pride and Prejudice.

The Diving Bell and the Butterfly: foreign slot?

Plus: Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon (2000), Letters From Iwo Jima (2006)

Minus:

Il Postino (1995), Life Is Beautiful (1998), All About My Mother

(1999), Amelie (2001), Talk to Her (2002), The Sea Inside (2004), Pan's

Labyrinth (2006)

 

Let's get this straight.  Julian Schnabel's second film is Before Night Falls,

which establishes the career of likely-2007-Oscar-winner Javier

Bardem.  Schnabel sits on his derriere for seven years, during which he

sees Bardem in The Sea Inside as a paraplegic telling his life story, and decides he'd like to tell that story too.  So for his third film we get The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, and now Oscar is supposed to act like Life is Beautiful just came to town?  Or My Left Foot hasn't already been there done that?  You can say Diving Bell reinvented cinema all you want - personally I see more reinvented cinema in I'm Not There, which isn't even a contender.  

 

The hard reality is that this will be judged as a foreign-language slot, meaning that The Kite Runner,

with more mixed reviews, has even less chance at the one position.  In

the last 35 years, only two foreign language films have been to the

Final Five without Harvey Weinstein's help: Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon and Letters From Iwo Jima

- despite a long litany of rather deserving candidates (that received

director or screenplay nods) like Bergman and Jeunet and Almodovar

films.  Iwo Jima is part of the Clint Decade.  I would argue that Crouching Tiger

was a very unusual phenomenon, a foreign film that made ten times more

money than any other, a groundbreaking prestige film that was on

everyone's lips, and a slight restitution to Ang Lee for ignoring The Ice Storm.  The Diving Bell and the Butterfly has none of that - but if it makes it, that proves that foreign films are back without needing Harvey.

 

Into the Wild: loving bio slot?

Plus: Sweet and Lowdown (1999), Ray (2004), Capote (2005), Brokeback Mountain (2005), The Queen (2006)

Minus: The Crossing Guard (1995), Cast Away (2000), The Pledge (2001)

 

Into the Wild's

best chance at Best Picture is to try to cull the otherwise-unfilled

"loving bio" slot as mentioned in the intro.  The problem - and the

greatness of the picture - is that the film refuses to be as

sentimental as those about its lead character.  This type of film is

kinda unknown to the Best Picture Oscar - contemporary man on

secular-spiritual journey winds up lost in wilderness.  They didn't do Cast Away and they certainly won't be doing I Am Legend.  A perfect film of Walden,

starring Johnny Depp as Thoreau, would still be iffy as a Best Picture

candidate.  If this film "feels" like any Best Picture nominee ever, it

might be Brokeback Mountain - but that's a stretch.

 

You

often hear "They love Sean Penn."  Oh really?  This is his fourth

feature, and the first three may as well have been made in Estonia for

all the Academy cared (despite, in two of them, the lead presence of

the Academy's actual favorite person, Jack Nicholson).  AMPAS could

have easily nominated twice as many of Penn's performances by now

(especially the one in Carlito's Way), though the one for Sweet and Lowdown

was a pleasant surprise.  When Penn did win Best Actor, his competition

was weak, his precursor awards were overwhelming, and his lead rival,

Bill Murray, did him a huge favor by Oscar-campaigning even more

reluctantly than Penn.  Should this one fail, the voices now saying

"They love him" will change their tune to "They just don't get him."

 

Juno: comic indie slot?

Plus:

The Full Monty (1997), American Beauty (1999), Chocolat (2000), Lost in

Translation (2003), Sideways (2004), Little Miss Sunshine (2006)

Minus:

Citizen Ruth (1996), Bulworth (1998), Being John Malkovich (1999),

Almost Famous (2000), Ghost World (2001), Adaptation (2002), About

Schmidt (2002), American Splendor (2003)

 

Ah, the

little-comic-indie-that-could slot.  The favorite slot of every critic

and your girlfriend.  The problem is that it happens as often as it

doesn't happen.  Everyone is screaming Little Miss Sunshine. 

That was a surprise $50mil-level hit with legs like Betty Grable - it

kept people coming to indie theaters all summer.  By the time the

voters decide on Juno, there will be no way to know if it can or will do the same.  For every Lost in Translation and Sideways, there's a Being John Malkovich and an About Schmidt - winning every possible precursor but still not a Final Five invite.  Is Juno an American Beauty or is it a Ghost World - acutely meaningful or just meaningfully cute?

 

This seems like one of those years where the Comedy/Musical Golden Globe would make a difference: Juno, Sweeney Todd, or Charlie Wilson's War wins

the Globe, gets the one lighthearted slot in Best Pic, and the other

two go hungry.  But in the new compressed Oscar schedule, the voters

won't know who wins that Globe until their ballots are already in - no Scent of a Woman-like guiding of the blind.  In a way, rewarding Juno

would be like rewarding the very au courant Judd

Apatow-fertility-issues-but-with-humor-chatty-TV school - which voters

may have mixed feelings about.  Yes, many people love Juno;

actress Ellen Page and writer Diablo Cody are locks to get nominated. 

But Juno isn't likely to get a whole lot of other nominations -

editing, cinematography, art direction, set decoration, etc. - so it'll

need a bellyful of love to get any Best Picture recognition.

 

Michael Clayton: adult drama slot?

Plus: The Insider (1999), Erin Brockovich (2000), Good Night and Good Luck (2005)

Minus: A Civil Action (1998), Confessions of a Dangerous Mind (2002), North Country (2005)

 

Michael Clayton might be able to register at the same slot of eponymy of Ray, Capote, and The Queen

- if Clayton were a real person.  Sure, if George Clooney were playing

a real-life Erin Brockovich, I'd suggest reserving his Final Five place

immediately.  Many are ready to make those reservations anyway.  Michael Clayton has basically been riding shotgun on No Country's driver for weeks now, in a way that hasn't been seen since The Insider and American Beauty - the one we know won't win paired with the one that will.  If Michael Clayton does make it, it'll feel like The Insider

returned, a contemporary legal drama with rich, stark use of blue New

York skyscraper interiors and bitter old men.  The film's minimalism

does happen to be perfect for the Clint Decade.

 

A well-told law yarn isn't an automatic slot - look at A Civil Action and North Country. 

(Unlike them, Michael Clayton is smart enough never to go inside a

courtroom, keeping the focus on character, not plot.)  There are two

ways to see an environmentally conscious, cleverly structured

improvement on shows like Law and Order - as a hackneyed sop to

the current zeitgeist, or as a skillful dramatization of current

corporate ethics crises.  Most bloggers guess that AMPAS voters see it

as the latter, or just love Clooney.  Gorgeous George's Oscar speech of

two years ago, giving the Academy credit for everything but inventing

the internet, probably doesn't hurt.  

 

No Country For Old Men: juggernaut slot?

Plus:

Fargo (1996), L.A. Confidential (1997), American Beauty (1999), Mystic

River (2003), Million Dollar Baby (2004), Brokeback Mountain (2005)

Minus:

Lone Star (1996), All the Pretty Horses (2000), O Brother Where Art

Thou? (2000), The Man Who Wasn't There (2001), A History of Violence

(2005)

 

There's no real reason to worry about this film's slot,

because it has the trump-card slot of all slots: the film that has won

by far the most precursors.  If Bad Santa had won the Boston, New York,

Washington, St. Louis, BFCA critics, had made the SAG and PGA and DGA

five, had a Golden Globe nod...and how sweet would all that have

been?...you're damn right it would have been one of the Best Picture

Five.  

 

Too violent?  Wouldn't worry.  Though the Coens didn't

ape Eastwood quite as clearly as Scorsese did last year, this still

seems like a very Eastwood-friendly project, with the defeated late-70s

landscapes, the unnecessary horses, the brief trip to Mexico, Tommy Lee

Jones (of Space Cowboys) coaching his kid partner, the third-act side-shift (a la Million Dollar Baby),

the name (I would guess that maybe one-third of voters for any

particular Best Picture winner didn't actually see it), and most

importantly, the nihilist message of change being impossible, not

unlike High Plains Drifter or Unforgiven.  Yes, they have rejected award-winning projects that were more similar to No Country - it's redemption time.

 

Sweeney Todd: musical slot?

Plus: Moulin Rouge (2001), Chicago (2002), Finding Neverland (2004)

Minus: Evita (1996), Billy Elliot (2000), Big Fish (2003), Walk the Line (2005), Dreamgirls (2006)

 

This is the musical slot, in danger since the Dreamgirls rejection of last year.  Taken together, two years in a row of such rejections will supposedly "prove" that the Moulin Rouge-Chicago love of five years ago was just a fluke.  Or could it be that such a snub would only prove that Dreamgirls and Sweeney Todd underwhelmed voters, and they'd be utterly receptive to something else?  Too bad Hairspray isn't getting the campaign it deserves; hasn't it made more money than any musical besides Chicago, ever?

 

Is

there a longtime artist slot that the Coens aren't already using?  Does

AMPAS owe it to Tim Burton, in a way that it won't be able to

acknowledge any other year?  Maybe.  Both his Eds - Scissorhands and Wood -

were widely admired, but what has he done for us lately?  In a

Hillary-health-care sense, it may strangely help that Burton fell so

squarely on his face trying to be more Oscar-friendly with Big Fish.  Corpse Bride did make the final animated three, and Johnny Depp and Stephen Sondheim don't hurt.  Sweeney Todd is just so dark; arriving during the same year as American Gangster, No Country For Old Men, and There Will Be Blood, Burton's film is either a huge at-least-it's-fun or a huge enough-with-the-gore-already.

 

There Will Be Blood: epic, upset slot?

Plus: Gangs of New York (2002)

Minus: The Crucible (1996), Boogie Nights (1997), Magnolia (1999), The Constant Gardener (2005), Children of Men (2006)

 

Of

these nine, this film is the hardest to slot.  Is it a historical

epic?  Sort of, but without the grandeur - more David Lynch than David

Lean.  Is there a slot for an important chapter of American history? 

Well, if it's not boomer history (Apollo 13, WWII films), it tends to get lost outside Best Picture, e.g. Amistad, The Patriot, Cold Mountain.  The one exception was Daniel Day-Lewis's last American tour-de-force, Gangs of New York, but that was Marty and Harvey; Day-Lewis' other multi-award-winning forays into rarely seen periods of Americana, namely The Last of the Mohicans, The Age of Innocence, and The Crucible,

have all been left outside the Best Picture circle.  AMPAS is less

interested in neglected eras than neglected stories about familiar

eras.  This film looks suspiciously like this year's Constant Gardener/Children of Men - critics' choice for film of the year, relevant as hell, great lead performance - but Oscar's not bothered.

 

Yet...yet...there's something about Blood.  There's another slot, the upset-in-the-making slot, filled in years past by films like Little Miss Sunshine, Crash, The Cider House Rules, and Braveheart. 

These were films that didn't necessarily win that many precursors, but

they campaigned like hell and may have been helped by representing

viable upset choices (unlike, in the respective years, The Queen, Capote, The Green Mile, and Babe: films that get respectful Best Pic noms that everyone knows won't lead to a win - you know, like Michael Clayton).  More than any other film on the Best Picture bubble, Blood needs a campaign better than Mike Huckabee's.

 

People are asking why they keep ignoring Paul Thomas Anderson.  Uh, what?  No one saw Hard Eight, Boogie Nights was never going to join the rarefied ranks of indie sophomore superstar (Pulp Fiction had made about $100 million more), the overrated Magnolia still got Paul his screenplay nod after losing New Line about $30 million, and I know bloggers don't think Punch-Drunk Love needed more nominations than, say, Spanglish.  If Anderson has a through-line, it's the 1970s - Boogie Nights was early porn, Magnolia was glory-days Altman, and There Will Be Blood is Chinatown crossed with "twilight westerns" like Days of Heaven and Heaven's Gate.  Too bad there's no Chinatown/twilight-western slot.

 

Based on all this, my guesses are:

 

Atonement

Michael Clayton

No Country For Old Men

Sweeney Todd

There Will Be Blood

 

Into the Wild could knock out any of those except No Country.  A lineup that included any other film would astonish me and very possibly make my day.  Go ahead, Academy.  Make my day.[/quote']

 

[FeCamargo]

Fe Camargo ta ressentido porque There Will be Blood vai perder pra o muito bom (badalado está) Onde os Fracos não têm vez.

 

muito bom nada. obra-prima.

 

arrisco dizer que nunca que o pta vai fazer algo nesse nível. isso pq eu gosto muito dele.

 

Ruby, ruby...

 

Então, a questão é que acredito que inclusive os Coen vão perder. Por isso eu falei aquilo. Em uma temporada que poderiamos ter um Lumet, Burton, Coens, PTA, acho que teremos outro vitorioso.

 

[Bob Harris]

Bastante interessante este artigo mesmo, Gustavo! E eu acho que é bem por aí mesmo!

[Jon]

Para endossar a opinião do FeCamargo a respeito da possível estupidez do Oscar 2008, observem como seria se fosse assim:

George Clooney vencer Daniel Day-Lewis;

Ellen Page vencer Marion Cotillard;

Hal Holbrook vencer Javier Bardem;

Amy Ryan vencer Cate Blanchett.

 

Agora imaginem o contrário. Quanta diferença, não?

[Bob Harris]

Eu estou começando a pressentir que Into the Wild abocanhará o prêmio principal. Acho que é o único que revela ameaças a No Country for Old Men. E do jeito que Penn é o queridinho da Academia...

[Administrator]

Eu já acho que é Michael Clayton. E Penn está LOOONGE de ser o queridinho da Academia. Esse posto é sem dúvidas do Paul Haggis, Rike.

[Jon]

Eu acho que Michael Clayton ainda tem muito que penar para ser indicado, o que dirá para ganhar?

 

Into the Wild, de fato, tem tudo para ser o novo Crash do Oscar 2008.

[saulomeri]

Into the Wild, realmente parece a versão Crash do ano, mas acho que se algum filme ameaça de verdade os Coen, este é Atonement.

[Administrator]

Não acho, filmes que tratam de assuntos políticos sempre possuem uma vaga. Sem contar que ele foi completamente ovacionado dos pés a cabeça, não só me parece que ele vai ser indicado à categoria principal, como tbm a roteiro, ator, ator coadjuvante e atriz coadjuvante.

 

Mas o Saulomeri lembrou realmente um que possui mais chances: Atonement.