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Oscar 2010: Indicados e Previsões


MacGruber
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Duvido MUITO do Terry Gilliam, tenho os dois pés atrás com ele. O único filme dele que eu acho excelente foi O Cálice Sagrado. 12 Macacos é interessante (mas não muito mais do que isso), e o resto acho totalmente dispensável (adicione aí O Sentido da Vida). Ainda não vi Brazil, mas não tenho muito vontade por não esperar muito.

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Não entendi o Scorsa fora do top 5 aí. Se o filme for bem recebido DUVIDO que ele fique de fora

 

Jolie e qual a outra?

 

Streep.

 

===

 

Melhor atuação do ano sem qualquer uma perto é Winslet por Revolutionary Road. Melhor atuação da carreira dela... aquilo lá nem Streep fazia na idade de Winslet. É genial a composição...

 

Sobre isso. Eu diria que a Elizabeth taylor (com 33 anos) fez melhor que a Winslet em Quem tem medo de Virginia Wolf assim como a Marion Cottilard (com 31, pra pegar um exemplo mais recente) fez em Piaf.

 

A atuação da Kate é muito boa sim mas não figura entre as minhas favoritas não.

 

 
Beckin2009-04-13 11:02:06
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Rogers e os melhores filmes:

 

Best

Picture -

April Fool*

Predictions

 

*because it's so foolish to start predicting

this early

 

April

12th This is only your starter kit.

I repeat "only your starter kit". Buzz will soar and drop

and maybe soar again on many of these "contenduhs". We

know very little before autumn. The only thing we really know THIS

early is which films have the stars and the repeat Oscar players

behind the scenes. We also can get a sense of which films seem to

be constructed for or are aiming at the gold. Those aren't always

the same ones that hit the Oscar target. This time last year who

had Slumdog Millionaire on their radar?

P.S.

1 Though my charts to tend to include less obvious

possibilities than some charts on the net, I think it's important

to keep your imagination open during predictions -- especially this

far in advance when anything is still possible. Last year at this

time I correctly predicted 2 of the eventual 5. In 2007, I correctly

predicted 3 (my best year for April Fool Predictions). How close

will I get this year? Discuss

@ THE

BLOG

P.S.

2 I'm fully aware

that my Best Actor shortlist is a mess.

Once I got around to doing this Best Picture chart I realized Johnny

Depp (Public Enemies) and Javier Bardem (Biutiful)

in particular should be much higher. But that's what monthly revisions

are for, detailing changes in perception and honing your previous

predictions.

poster_humanfactor.jpg

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1

2

3

4

5

The

Human Factor

 

Clint Eastwood

 

(Warner Bros)

 

December

An

Education

 

Lone Scherfig

 

(Sony Pictures Classics)

 

October

The

Lovely Bones

 

Peter Jackson

 

(Paramount/ Dreamworks)

 

December

Public

Enemies

 

Michael Mann

 

(Universal)

 

July

Nine

 

Rob Marshall

 

(Weinstein Co)

 

November

Pro:

Eastwood + Freeman + Damon + Warner Bros + True Story + Dec + Inspirational

+

 

Con: Lighter than Eastwood usually goes? How will

that invariably shadowy cinematography mix with this topic?

Pro:

It's already got the reviews and its in the general Oscar vein (period

/ biographical)

 

Con: Will have to be at least a minor arthouse hit

and have critical champs who stick with it. Small.

Pro:

Based on a popular book and AMPAS not averse to sentiment (plus: grief

is Oscary)

 

Con: Could misfire w/ lots of elements competing:

f/x, human drama, mystery, after life...

Pro:

Mann's strengths behind camera + Big Manly Cast (Oscar prefers male

oriented stories) + True Story + Depp

 

Con: The Insider is only Mann-directed effort

they've truly responded to.

Pro:

Hollywood loves movies about creative process. Could be big with techs.

Pedigreed cast and crew

 

Con: Box office? Comparisons to 8 1/2 can

be dangerous ground

poster_avatar.jpg

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6

7

8

9

10

Avatar

 

James Cameron

 

(20th Century Fox)

 

December

Precious

 

Lee Daniels

 

(Lionsgate)

 

November

Shutter

Island (Ashecliffe)

 

Martin Scorsese

 

(Paramount)

 

October

Green

Zone

 

Paul Greengrass

 

(Universal)

 

TBA

Biutiful

 

Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu

 

(Focus Features)

 

December

Pro:

It's been ages since a sci-fi movie was in the shortlist. If Cameron

lives up to the hype, that genre bias could be shoved aside.

 

Con: Those biases are deeply entrenched. Plus WHAT

IS IT?

Pro:

Dramas about black illiterate teenagers don't scream Oscar Bait but

if it becomes a Oprah cause and critical pet, watch out.

 

Con: Not a typical Oscar topic and no previous nominees

anywhere in sight.

Pro:

Scorsese is a master. He's been in Oscar's favor all decade. Starry

cast surrounded by potentially edible furniture (asylum)

 

Con: This might be a little "procedural"

or "thriller" for voters who prefer more sedate drama

Pro:

Greengrass seems like the type of director they'll be eager to honor

once he makes the right 'type' of film.

 

Con: Is this the right 'type'? CIA thrillers are

not exactly bullseyes with Oscar

Pro:

Iñárritu seems right up their alley in some ways. Focus

knows Oscar race.

 

Con: Much will depend on critical reception and Year

End is always crowded with heavyweights --could be hard to get attention

Other

Possibilities

11

Away We Go Sam Mendes (Focus Features) June

 

 

Could backing away from obvious BAIT loosen Mendes up enough to really

compete again? After Jarhead and Revolutionary Road

a few laughs is probable just the right move.

 

12 Bright Star Jane Campion (No US Distributor)

TBA

 

If it's a return to form, expect a distributor to bite and a real

Oscar push.

 

13 The Informant Steven Soderbergh (Warner

Bros) October

 

Perhaps too comedic for them -- but then Soderbergh makes fine mainstream

entertainment and maybe their pooled mood will be lighter this year?

 

14 Taking Woodstock

Ang Lee (Focus Features) August

 

One should never write Ang Lee out of the equation... though sometimes

Oscar doesn't notice how masterful his filmmaking can be (see: Lust,

Caution) If this is a hit, maybe 1969 nostalgia will help it

win votes with older AMPAS members?

 

 

 

 

 

15 Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus Terry

Gilliam (No US Distributor) TBA

 

If it's a return to form, expect a distributor to bite and a real

Oscar push.

 

16 Up Peter Docter / Bob Peterson (Pixar)

May

 

After WALL•E's

snub last year (if it was ever going to happen...) it's tough

to imagine that an animated film will ever make the BP shortlist again.

That said, I expect Pixar's efforts to remain in the conversation

even if it's only in the media "THIS DESERVES IT!" way.

We'll see.

 

17 The Tempest Julie Taymor (Miramax) TBA

 

One has to assume Frida got closer to a best pic nomination

in 2002 than anyone expected. If Taymor does something accessible

but still weird enough to stand out with Shakespeare, who knows how

many nominations she could earn?

 

18 Where The Wild Things Are Spike Jonze

(Warner Bros) October

 

Even if it's great, it'll be an uphill climb to serious Oscar contention.

 

 

19 1939 Stephen Poliakoff (No US Distributor)

TBA

 

On account of... one never knows.

 

20 Everybody's Fine Kirk Jones (Miramax)

November

 

On account of... if it's sentimental enough to move them. But not

too much to be hackish?

 

 

 

21 Agora Alejandro Amenábar (Distributor?)

TBA

 

If they're in the mood for a big Roman/Egyptian philosophical epic.

But is this period really Baity? Some eras are more Oscar accessible

than others.

 

22 A Serious Man The Coen Bros (Focus Features)

October

 

On account of... occasionally Oscar likes the Brothers Coen. The lack

of stars here is interesting, though perhaps not at all interesting

to AMPAS.

 

23 The

Last Station

Michael Hoffman (Distributor?) TBA

 

Every once in a while mainstream directors without much previous sizzle

in their filmography end up breaking through. Oscar likes biopics

about writers.

 

24 Broken Embraces Pedro Almodóvar

(Sony Pictures Classics) November

 

Pedro will always be in the "great film" conversation. That

doesn't always mean Oscar buzz however.

 

25 Chéri Stephen Frears

(Miramax) June

 

One expects the buzz on this period dramedy

will continue to be all over the place. Festival reactions are hard

to trust for lighter fare.

 

 

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E Indiana Jones' date=' ET, Tubarão e SdA eram o quê?[/quote']

Não sei explicar, mas eu diria que hoje em dia filmes como Indiana Jones, ET e Tubarão definitivamente não seriam indicados, assim como Star Wars e outros. Já Sda (e mesmo Titanic) acho que conseguiram por penderem mais pro lado "épico grandioso voltado para toda a família" do que "blockbuster de adolescentes".

 

---

 

Saiu o trailer de Antichrist:

 

http://vimeo.com/4062746?pg=embed&sec=#embed

 

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É, eu também. Apesar de achar os seus filmes recentes ótimos, e eles ainda se tornam melhores quando você vê o cara com quase 40 filmes nas costas, a idade, ainda produz, coisa boa, mas nada digno de vencer um Oscar por filme ou direção, mas indicam cada porcaria, deveriam indicar mais mesmo.

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Vicky Cristina Barcelona e Match Point estão nas minhas listas de melhores de seus respectivos anos e certamente mereciam mais prêmios do q filmes como QUEM QUER SER UM MILIONÁRIO?(me desculpem os q gostam, mas para mim foi a verdadeira fraude do ano!).

Woody é meu ídolo! Consegue escrever roteiros incríveis sem precisar se apoiar em fontes como livros ou peças, coisa raríssima no cinema de hoje.
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A Variety divulgou uma lista de rumores sobre os filme que farão parte da seleção oficial de Cannes este ano. Tem muita coisa interessante nesta lista.

 

Quentin Tarantino’s Inglourious Basterds, the Nazi-hunter saga with Brad Pitt

Ang Lee’s Taking Woodstock, about 1969 music fest, with Emile Hirsch

Francis Ford Coppola’s Tetro, an Argentine family drama with Vincent Gallo

Werner Herzog’s Bad Lieutenant remake with Nicolas Cage

Sam Raimi’s Drag Me to Hell,  horror-thriller with Alison Lohman

Pete Docter’s Up, the 3D Pixar adventure with Ed Asner

Jane Campion’s Bright Star, a John Keats bio with Ben Wishaw

Lars von Trier’s Antichrist, horror in the woods with Willem Dafoe & Charlotte Gainsbourg

Ken Loach’s Looking for Eric, about a troubled teen soccer fan

Johnny To’s Vengeance, a hitman-turned-chef in Hong Kong to avenge his daughter’s murder, with Johnny Hallyday

Andrea Arnold’s Fish Tank, teen troubles with Michael Fassbender

Michael Haneke’s The White Ribbon, about incipient fascism at a rural school in 1913
(Tetro and The White Ribbon are both shot in black and white)

Pedro Almodovar’s Broken Embraces, a noirish melodrama with Penelope Cruz

Marco Bellocchio’s Vincere, about Mussolini’s secret lover

Bong Joon-ho’s Mother, a thriller about a ghastly murder

Park Chan-wook’s Thirst, about a small-town priest who turns into a vampire

Lou Ye’s Spring Fever, about a young threesome overcome with erotic longings

Lu Chuan’s City of Life and Death, epic about the 1937 massacre of Nanking by the Japanese army

Hirokazu Kore-eda’s Air Doll, about the love affair between a videostore clerk and an inflatable sex doll

Tsai Ming-liang’s Face, about a Taiwanese director in Paris to make a film about Salome, with Mathieu Amalric, Jeanne Moreau, Fanny Ardant, Nathalie Baye, Laetitia Casta and Jean-Pierre Leaud

Rumored but unconfirmed:

Terry Gilliam’s The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus, a fantasy with Heath Ledger, Johnny Depp, Colin Farrell and Jude Law
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Sobre Allen, também acho genial, Match Point é fantástico. mas Vicky Cristina Barcelona achei decepcionante.  Porque a Penelope ganhou o Oscar?  Ela está ótima, mas não melhor que Amy Adams.  Mas não foi injusto, pelo menos.

 

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E Indiana Jones' date=' ET, Tubarão e SdA eram o quê?[/quote']

 

Mas a Academia, nos últimos anos, não tem dado mais importância a blockbusters de qualidade. Ela tem priorizado os filmes pequenos, os filmes de arte. Se a Academia continuar pensando assim, esqueça os blockbusters.

 

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Sobre Allen' date=' também acho genial, Match Point é fantástico. mas Vicky Cristina Barcelona achei decepcionante.  Porque a Penelope ganhou o Oscar?  Ela está ótima, mas não melhor que Amy Adams.  Mas não foi injusto, pelo menos.

[/quote']

 

É outro que já começa a ser injustiçado pela Academia.

Nightcrawler2009-04-18 15:16:39

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Tb naum achei a interpretação da Penélope merecedora de um Oscar(tampouco a Adams por Dúvida). Na lista deste ano minha favorita era disparado a Marisa Tomei em The Wrestler.

Sobre Vicky Cristina Barcelona, para mim é uma das melhores obras do Allen junto com Match Point sim.
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Was it worth the wait?

Posted by Guy Lodge · 3:28 am · April 19th, 2009

When Joe Wright’s “The Soloist” was shifted from prime Oscar territory last autumn to a considerably more low-profile 2009 slot, many presumed that the film was something of an artistic disappointment. However, word also went round that the move was a sympathetic one, aimed to place less pressure on a film that, despite the talent involved, was more crowdpleaser than prestige item.

Meanwhile, two diametrically opposed trade reviews do very little to clear up the picture ahead of the film’s release next week. (They appeared a few days ago, but escaped my notice until now.) Todd McCarthy’s Variety pan confirms the suspicions of the sceptics, actually suggesting that the film appears uncomfortably caught between awards-baiting and more populist urges:

Neither rarefied art film nor widely accessible inspirational drama, “The Soloist” falls between the cracks both creatively and commercially … Joe Wright’s first American feature has moments of power and imagination, but the overworked style and heavy socially conscious bent exude an off-putting sense of self-importance, making for a picture that’s more of a chore than a pleasure to sit through.

Charismatic and dynamic as they’ve been on any number of previous occasions, both Foxx and Downey seem to labor here as they grapple with roles viewers will find difficulty warming to. Downey, in particular, fails to find either outer charm or inner soul in Steve Lopez.

The Hollywood Reporter’s Kirk Honeycutt, however, sings a very different tune, describing the film as “excellent, if flawed.” His disagreement is most pronounced on the matter of the film’s lead performances, going so far as to suggest that they remain strong awards contenders:

Robert Downey Jr. and Jamie Foxx are on fire in the lead roles: They’re both charismatic as hell without sacrificing any of the emotional honesty necessary for you to believe that these movie stars are a scruffy reporter and a mentally ill musician … True, Academy members tend to remember only the last three months of a year when voting, but these performances are extraordinary enough that the memory should not fade by fall.

Honeycutt’s review does end on a pointed journalism-related note, as he suggests that “The Soloist” will be “the last movie ever to focus on a newspaper columnist,” before melancholically bemoaning the supplanting of columnists like Downey’s Steve Lopez character by blog culture. As Kris mused the other day regarding the critical reception for “State of Play,” you have to wonder if Honeycutt’s loyalty to his profession played any role in his review.

For my part, I’m more interested in Wright’s next project, but that’s me.

------------------

OFF_1ª imagem do Crowe no Robin Wood do Ridley Scott:

 

Russell%20Crowe%20in%20Robin%20Hood
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Sobre Allen' date=' também acho genial, Match Point é fantástico. mas Vicky Cristina Barcelona achei decepcionante.  Porque a Penelope ganhou o Oscar?  Ela está ótima, mas não melhor que Amy Adams.  Mas não foi injusto, pelo menos. [/quote']

 

Quem merecia era a Viola Davis, de longe, mas o Oscar tem lá seus méritos, vários, a justiça, não é um deles, mesmo; só as vezes.

 

Sobre Cannes, acho quase impossível os filmes/diretores desse ano aparecerem também no Oscar. Tarantino, talvez?
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Hehehehe Estamos todos divididos, pois eu acho que quem merecia era a Marisa Tomei.

 

Sobre a lista: Jane Campion, Ken Loach e Sam Raimi = hiperestimados (principalmente ela, monstruosa). E Coppola e Gilliam, estes sim, são meras figuras do passado.

 

Mas confesso estar particularmente interessado nos filmes dos asiáticos (To, em especial) e nos de Haneke e Von Trier. Esses prometem!
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Jane Campion tem, no mínimo, 2 filmaços embaixo da saia - O Piano e Retratos de uma Mulher. Pode até ser que esteja passando por uma má fase, mas pessoalmente é um nome que vale a pena ficar atento.

 

Já o Ken Loach eu ainda não conheço, mas planejo ver "Kes" assim que o DVD da Lume for lançado... É um diretor bem comentado também, e que ganhou a Palma a pouco tempo atrás.
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